🔮 Predicting: More Than Just a Guess

Over the past few weeks, I have been working on power verbs with some students. For these students, we have been through all the foundational sounds and spellings, we have been through the most common prefixes and suffixes, and we have moved on to looking at high-impact verbs used within learning. Examples of these verbs are words like analyse, compare, evaluate, classify etc.

Today, we worked on the power word predict; it tied in nicely with the narrative work we are doing at the moment with Zap and the Word Thief. My thoughts have been sifting around, thinking about how important it is to teach this word and concept thoroughly.

Because contrary to the belief of many of my students;

👉 Prediction is not just guessing.

It’s thinking, noticing, and connecting. 

The reason this blog post has come about was because many of my students, as I initiated the conversation to see what their knowledge of the word predict was, quite often said to me, “It’s when you make a guess about what happens next”.

Let’s break this down a little further.

When we ask students to predict, we’re actually asking them to do something quite complex:

✨ Look for clues in the text
✨ Use evidence from what they’ve read
✨ Think deeply about characters (What would they do?)
✨ Consider cause and effect (What might happen next?)
✨ Draw on their background knowledge

And the last item there, drawing on background knowledge, is one that we actually don’t think about enough. Why? Well, you can’t predict what you have no idea about.

If a student has limited background knowledge, prediction becomes really surface-level. This is where you get a lot of the ‘guessing’.

They might say:

👉 “Something bad will happen.”

However, when background knowledge is there, predictions can shift to include a much deeper and more thoughtful look at what is happening:

👉 “Zap might follow the shadow figure because she’s curious and doesn’t back down, even when things feel unsafe.”

That’s a completely different level of thinking. What has fascinated me this term is seeing the difference between the first time I taught a narrative mystery like this, compared to now.

The first time around, many students were genuinely stumped when asked to predict. They struggled to think beyond the literal events happening on the page. Their predictions were often very broad, very safe, or disconnected from the clues in the story.

But this time around I have seen a shift. 

Students are beginning to understand:

 ✨ how narratives work
✨ how characters tend to behave
✨ how tension builds
✨ how authors leave clues
✨ how problems and outcomes connect

They are now drawing on what they already know about stories, characters, and plot structure alongside the clues within the text itself. All of that is background knowledge in action.

Importantly, when I talk about background knowledge, I am not talking about children needing expensive experiences, overseas holidays, or privileged opportunities. I’m talking about knowledge that can be intentionally built through teaching.

Knowledge-rich classrooms matter because they give students something to think with. The more stories students hear,  the more vocabulary they learn,  the more ideas they encounter,
the more concepts they are exposed to, the stronger their ability becomes to:

 ✨ predict
✨ infer
✨ connect ideas  and
✨ think critically

This is one reason why exposure to rich texts, conversations, history, science, narratives, and knowledge matters so deeply. When we continuously build knowledge, we are not just “covering content.” We are expanding students’ ability to understand the world and to think ahead within it.

When we looked at the word predict, we broke down like this:

👉 Good readers predict by using clues from the text.

In essay questions and reading tasks, predict is a power verb. It is a command to use evidence and clues to make a thoughtful guess about what might happen next.

How might we predict something?

Predict an Outcome: → Say what you think will happen next.

Predict a Character’s Actions: → Use clues to guess what a character might do.

Predict the Ending: → Suggest how the story might finish.

Predict Based on Evidence: → Use details from the text to support your thinking.

Prediction is about looking deeper than what might happen, but also includes why it might happen, what clues tell us this, and what we know about this character.

We can also start to look at other words:

Prediction, predictable, unpredictable.

I also wanted to address why we actually teach prediction. Prediction supports building the foundations for powerful thinking.

When students learn to predict, they are learning to:

✨ Anticipate outcomes (What might happen next?)
✨ Use evidence to support ideas (What makes you think that?)
✨ Think logically about cause and effect
✨ Step into someone else’s perspective
✨ Make decisions based on incomplete information

It also drives comprehension.

Prediction can also support solving problems in the real world. For example:  

👉 Plan what to do next in a tricky situation
👉 Think ahead before making a choice
👉 Understand consequences

It’s the beginning of critical thinking.

Let’s bring this back around to knowledge (background knowledge). The more our students know,  the more they can predict. The more they can predict,  the more they can:

✨ Infer
✨ Analyse
✨ Understand deeply

Each time we share stories, do read-alouds, have rich conversations, and expose learners to ideas, words, and experiences, we are also teaching them to think ahead.

I also thought I might share one of the resources I use to teach with:

🔮 FREE DOWNLOAD — Teaching the Power Verb “Predict”

This free Structured Word Inquiry (SWI)-inspired resource helps students move beyond “just guessing” and into deeper thinking.

Designed to support reading comprehension, morphology, vocabulary, and writing instruction, this resource explicitly teaches how to use clues, evidence, and background knowledge to make thoughtful predictions.

Perfect for Years 5- 8 learners and especially supportive for students needing structured scaffolds for comprehension and writing.

Inside this free resource:

✨ The meaning of the power verb predict
✨ How “predict” is used in reading and essay prompts
✨ Morphology + word sums (<pre + dict>)
✨ A small word family
✨ Structured prediction scaffolds
✨ Narrative comprehension prompts
✨ Writing activities linked to Zap and the Word Thief
✨ Teacher-friendly explanation pages

This resource is ideal for:

📚 Structured literacy lessons
📚 Comprehension instruction
📚 Vocabulary teaching
📚 SWI / morphology work
📚 Narrative writing units
📚 Intervention and tutoring settings

Created by Heather at Love Literacy Mount Maunganui.